USING THE FOURIER METHOD FOR FORECASTING DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES

Abstract

Using the Fourier method, we analyzed the dynamic series of the number of births in the Russian Federation for 1946-2017. A mid-term fertility forecast was obtained. It is shown that the demographic consequences of the Second World War continue to exert a systemic and latent effect on the dynamics of the number of births in Russia, forming 30-year periodic cycles of equal length.

The forecast showed a high probability of a negative trend of fertility in the current cycle, which end is expected by 2031, and a slight increase (up to 31-32 years) in the length of the cycle, due to trends in increasing the age of marriage and birth of the first child.

Two factors that determine the dynamics of the number of births in the city and village of the Russian Federation are analyzed: the total fertility rate (TFR) and population migration, the resulting vector of which is directed from village to city. Using the correlation field of the TFR indicators and the number of births, fundamental differences in the forms of dependence between city and village, caused by inter-territorial migration of the population, are revealed. The negative effects of migration on the number of births in rural areas have been established.